The Trump administration plans federal worker layoffs if the government shuts down this week. The president’s budget director argues that the federal workforce is bloated. The administration has worked to cut the number of federal employees since the beginning of the year.
Let’s put the administration’s efforts into broader context. The figure shows Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on the number of civilian (nonuniformed) federal workers, excluding the postal service. The number increased from 1.9 million in January 2000 to 2.3 million in August 2025.
Aside from the three Census-related spikes, federal employment increased in three jumps: the first term of George W. Bush, the first term of Barack Obama, and the term of Joe Biden. This year, employment has dipped under Trump, but not yet enough to fully reverse the Biden increase.
The table shows federal budget data (Table 16.1) for civilian employment in the executive branch for selected years. This data does not include postal, legislative, or judicial branch employees. I started in 2001 because 2000 was a Census year. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) was created in 2002, but the data includes a figure for 2001 based on DHS component agencies. HHS is Health and Human Services, and SSA is the Social Security Administration.
The employment increase from 2001–2007 was mainly due to growth in DHS.
The employment increase from 2007–2012 included large increases in Defense, DHS, and Veterans Affairs (VA).
The employment increase from 2012–2024 included large increases in DHS and VA.
Defense is a massive bureaucracy with 776,000 civilian employees.
Veterans Affairs has more than doubled in size since 2001 and now includes 460,000 employees, of which almost 90 percent are in the Veterans Health Administration. The department has had by far the largest bureaucratic expansion since 2001. VA employment was 32 percent the size of Defense employment in 2001, but this ratio had increased to 59 percent by 2024.
Between 2001 and 2024, federal civilian employment increased by 551,000 workers, and 95 percent of the increase was in three departments—Defense, DHS, and VA.
If the Trump administration wants to substantially downsize the federal bureaucracy, it should tackle reforms in these three departments.