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Biden, Trump tied at outset of US election year — poll

by January 11, 2024
January 11, 2024

WASHINGTON — US President Joseph R. Biden and his leading Republican rival, former President Donald Trump, start the election year in a dead heat as many Americans appear to be unenthusiastic about their choices, a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday found.

With the state-by-state nominating contest set to kick off with Republican caucuses in Iowa on Monday, 35% percent of respondents in the nationwide survey said they would vote for Biden, the same percentage as said they would vote for Trump.

Nearly one-third of respondents indicated they did not support either candidate. Some 13% said they would not vote, while 9% said they would back another candidate and 8% said they were unsure.

When forced to choose between the two, respondents were equally divided, with 48% supporting each.

The poll found a clear interest in third-party candidates. Anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., a scion of the famed political dynasty who is running as an independent, won the backing of 18% of respondents when he was included as an option. That knocked Mr. Biden’s support in a three-way matchup down to 29% and Mr. Trump’s support to 30%.

The online, randomized survey of 4,677 U.S. adults was conducted nationwide, not focused on particular early-voting states such as Iowa and New Hampshire.

But it shows that Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump start the year as strong favorites for their party’s nomination.

Mr. Trump leads his Republican rivals by a margin of more than 37 percentage points, while neither of Mr. Biden’s two challengers for the Democratic nomination got more than 2% support from the party’s voters.

The survey reflected the polarized state of US politics, as 76% of Democrats said they would vote for Mr. Biden in the Nov. 5 election and 76% of Republicans said they would back Mr. Trump.

Independent voters were not enthusiastic about either candidate. Just 17% said they would vote for Mr. Trump and 11% said they would back Mr. Biden. Meanwhile, 41% of this group said they would not vote at all.

The online randomized poll was conducted Jan. 3 through Jan. 9 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points. — Reuters

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